Sales leaders know the challenge: spotting the deals most likely to close while managing those at risk. Without the right tools, sales forecasting often becomes guesswork, leading to missed targets and wasted opportunities. Predictive Deal Scoring is here to change that. At Dear Lucy, we’ve created a solution that leverages data to replace uncertainty with clarity, helping you focus your efforts on what truly drives results and ensuring every deal gets the attention it deserves.

What Is Predictive Deal Scoring?

Predictive deal scoring is an powerful data-driven method for estimating the likelihood of closing deals in your pipeline. Each deal is assigned a numerical score, with higher scores indicating a stronger chance of success. By analyzing patterns in your company’s historical sales data and ongoing activity, predictive deal scoring identifies what success looks like for your business and applies those insights to current deals.

Unlike manual scoring—often based on intuition or incomplete information—predictive deal scoring analyzes deal data, tracks changes over time, and evaluates sales activities related to each specific customer. The result is a clear, unbiased ranking of deals, helping sales teams prioritize their efforts effectively and focus on opportunities with the highest probability of closing.

This approach eliminates the pitfalls of subjective judgment and ensures that every decision is backed by data, not guesswork. Whether you're using Salesforce, HubSpot or Pipedrive predictive deal scoring seamlessly integrates with your CRM to provide actionable insights that drive better outcomes.

What Are the Key Benefits of Predictive Deal Scoring?

By leveraging predictive deal scoring, organizations can unlock consistent revenue growth while improving efficiency and decision-making across their GTM operations.

More Accurate ForecastinG

Rely on data, not guesswork, to create reliable revenue forecasts and make informed business decisions.

Smarter Deal Prioritization

Focus on the deals most likely to close and allocate resources to the right opportunities.

Early Warning System

Spot risks early and take proactive action to prevent deals from slipping away.

Team Alignment

Ensure sales, marketing, and customer success teams are on the same page with a unified, data-driven view of deal priorities.

How Dear Lucy’s Predictive Deal Scoring Works

Dear Lucy's predictive deal scoring analyzes in real-time what winning looks like in your company over a rolling 12-month period. It compares open deals in your pipeline against this benchmark and assigns a score from 1 to 99 to each deal, indicating the likelihood of the deal closing successfully.

To make insights even clearer, each deal is also given a star rating that highlights specific factors where the deal excels or where it may be at risk. This layered approach provides actionable guidance to help your team focus and take the right steps to close more deals.

Our predictive deal scoring evaluates the following key factors:

Total Activity Count

How active the deal has been in terms of calls, meetings, and tasks.

Future Activity Count

Scheduled activities that indicate ongoing engagement.

Recent Activity Count

The level of activity in the recent past.

Deal Length

The total time the deal has spent in the pipeline.

Deal Probability

Likelihood of closing, based on sales reps' input or CRM stage probabilities.

Time in Stage

How long the deal has stayed in its current stage, signaling potential delays.

Close Date Change Count

The frequency of changes to the expected close date.

Deal Size

The total value of the deal.

Overdue Day Count

Deals past their expected close date are flagged as risky.

Deal Value Change Count

Adjustments to the deal value.

The algorithm continuously evaluates your pipeline and adapts as new data flows in, ensuring scores remain accurate and actionable.

How to Customize Deal Scoring for Maximum Accuracy

One of the most valuable aspects of predictive deal scoring is its ability to adapt to your unique business dynamics. Unlike generic scoring systems, Dear Lucy allows you to fine-tune and customize the scoring process to reflect what truly drives success in your organization. This customization ensures the scoring models are accurate, actionable, and relevant to your specific needs.

Here are three powerful ways to customize deal scoring with Dear Lucy:

Select Relevant Sales Activities

Not all activities carry equal weight in determining a deal’s success. With Dear Lucy, you can choose which activity types to include in the scoring model, such as calls, emails, meetings, tasks, or notes. This ensures that the model considers the actions that have the most impact in your sales process.

Adjust Factor Weighting

Every business operates differently. Some may prioritize high activity counts, while others focus on deal size or stage progression. Dear Lucy lets you adjust the weighting of each factor to match what actually influences winning deals in your pipeline. This ability to choose and adjust ensures the scoring system is perfectly tailored to what drives success in your business.

Create Multiple Scoring Models

Sales dynamics vary across different segments of your business. You can design multiple scoring models tailored to specific needs, whether for new business versus upsell opportunities, different territories or regions, or even separate teams or product lines. By implementing these tailored models, you can ensure that each part of your business benefits from scoring insights specifically designed to drive success within its unique dynamics.

Choose Benchmark Data Filters

Not all data is relevant when creating a reliable benchmark. With Dear Lucy, you can choose exactly what to include, ensuring the scoring process reflects the most impactful factors and delivers highly accurate results for your business.

From Predictive Deal Scoring to Insights

Once deals are scored, the next step is turning those scores into actionable insights. This is where Dear Lucy's dashboards come into play, providing a clear visual representation of your pipeline and helping you understand where to focus your efforts.

Key Metrics Displayed in the Dashboard:

Deal Score-Based Forecasts

A comprehensive view of expected revenue, categorized by deal scores.

Hot Opportunities

A focused list of high-priority deals most likely to close.

Deals at Risk

Clear indicators of deals that need immediate attention to stay on track.

Pipeline Review

A snapshot of your entire sales pipeline segmented by scores, helping you monitor progress and align your team’s efforts.

These visuals ensure that you can easily identify areas of strength and risk, empowering your team to make informed, data-driven decisions at every step of the sales process.

Accelerate Your Sales with Predictive Insights

Stop relying on guesswork and start leveraging data to hit your targets consistently. Predictive Deal Scoring empowers sales teams and leaders to make smarter decisions, optimize resources, and turn your pipeline into a revenue engine while driving data-driven success.

Interested?

Dear Lucy offers embedded Sales Analytics for Salesforce, HubSpot, Salesloft, Microsoft Dynamics and Pipedrive. Book a call with our expert to learn more!